Sometimes I try to predict the future. Of course predicting the future is a complete nonsense. I’ll do it anyway. I predict that China will implement a wester-style democratic system in the very near future.
Some reasons: The fall of regimes in arabic countries. This really convinced me that it’s possible. And it is also true that global exchange (aka Internet) played its role. I am, however, not sure what will happen in Arabia the next years. Especially, I am not sure if a western style democratic system will be implemented soon. It will take a really long time until this happens.
The key difference - to me - are the people. I had the opportunity to talk to a lot of Chinese PhDs and Professors in the last years. And nobody of them was an idiot. They were really like you and me. They were intelligent. Had dreams. Although nobody of them openly admitted that China was not free - they knew it. Intelligentia from Arabic countries? Non existent. At no conference. At no university. Not a good sign to me. Education is key.
Most importantly: Many of the Chinese PhDs and Profs wanted to go back to China. And this educated nice elite will drive the change. Sure. You cannot censor a people of 1 billion in times where the internet is everywhere.
I am also not sure if religion can play a role. Daoism and Buddism seem to be big in China. And they tell people that everybody is created equal. And that everybody can achieve what he wants to achieve (really really simplified). Even Randy Komisar thinks that China has one of the best entrepreneurship cultures in the world [1]. The point is: The main religions do not tell people that some of them are idiots and born to follow. So why should they follow their party?
Summing up: China will be a democratic state soon. And it’s a good thing!
Note: This is purely nonsense and not fact based. Simply forget that post.
[1] http://ars-machina.raphaelbauer.com/2011/06/constructive-failure-randy-komisar.html