Why Facebook lost

Hamid: What's that?
Rambo: It's blue light.
Hamid: What does it do?
Rambo: It turns blue.


I recently blogged about Facebook [1]. And I presented arguments why I think Facebook is totally overrated. All these arguments are totally true - still.

But a really mean game changer entered stage: Google+ . And Facebook will not be happy. My bet is: Facebook will follow MySpace soon into the graveyard of social networks [3].

Google+ is such a great thing that it will completely annihilate Facebook in no time. It's just cool to use Google for searching and still having that tiny red symbol in the upper right corner. This symbol tells me when people did something on my network (Google+). And there is not only Gmail, Docs, Calendar in the upper navigation line, but also Raphael+. A one click link that leads me to my Google+. Millions of people already have a Google account - using Google+ is only one click away. Low low low entry barrier.

Google+ itself is not revolutionary. It is state of the art. It's fast, but not technically superb. Still page reloads in may cases. But it's beautiful and easy to use. Facebook was never famous for great UI - Google+ does a better job in many cases (Circles and such).

Will I use it? No - I am not that kind of "social sharing everything" guy. But people which use Facebook will find Google+ a compelling alternative.

Two more things are interesting:

1. I think the short idea-to-market time of Google+ is a sign that Google is one of the top companies in the world. I guess Larry Page started Google+ as CEO. And his organisation made a product out of the ideas within no time. You need a lot of talent and dedication both in management and coding to make such a huge endeavaour happen. A lot of people have to connect internally at Google. A lot of people have to be open to new ideas. That really seems to happen. Wow. Google seems to be an agile organisation. Even with thousands of people on board they act like a lean start-up.

2. A clear sign that Facebook is doing business totally wrong is that they are building walls around the accounts of users [2]. But modern times do not respect walls. People will just switch away. Look at Google: They even support initiatives that people can switch away [4]. But the incentives are so low that people just don't do it. People could use Bing for searching - but they use Google. Same thing. Facebook? Just like Microsoft. And all they can do is building walls? Bye bye Facebook.

[0] http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2388084,00.asp
[1] http://ars-machina.raphaelbauer.com/2011/06/facebook-anno-2011.html
[2] http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/07/05/facebook_blocks_facebook_friends_exporter/
[3] http://ars-machina.raphaelbauer.com/2011/03/why-myspace-closed.html
[4] http://www.dataliberation.org/